San Francisco’s condo market has faced a notable decline in demand over recent years, but we could be on the verge of a rebound. Let’s explore the data, recent developments, and broader trends to uncover why condos might be an overlooked opportunity.
The Numbers: A Tale of Two Markets
From 2012 to 2016, condos and single-family homes in San Francisco sold at remarkably similar speeds, with condos taking, on average, only six days longer to sell. This speed of sale suggests that condos once enjoyed demand levels comparable to single-family homes. However, since 2016, the gap has widened considerably. Today, the average time to sell a condo is 57 days, nearly double the 29 days that it takes to sell the average single-family home.
Between 2013 and 2019, on average 63% of condos sold above asking price, a clear indicator of strong demand. Fast-forward to 2024, and that figure has dropped to 35%. While this decline is significant, it’s still above the lows seen during the 2008 recession which dropped as low as 19%. This data shows that there is room for recovery and highlights a potential opportunity.
Median condo prices have been slowly climbing but remain below their pandemic-era highs, rising about 1% from 2023 to 2024. With optimism surrounding the city’s emerging Artificial Intelligence market and new leadership, it’ll be interesting to see what the future holds.
Positive Trends: Crime, Migration, and AI Boom
San Francisco’s broader landscape is improving in ways that could drive a condo market resurgence.
- Crime Rates Are Down:
Crime is at a 20-year low, according to report by outgoing Mayor London Breed in January 2025. Property crime has dropped by 31%, and larceny theft is down 37%. Despite negative media portrayals, the data paints a different picture of a city that is stabilizing and improving. - Migration Is Rebounding:
For the first time in five years, San Francisco has seen positive net migration. While slight, this shift could signify the early stages of a broader trend, fueled in part by the return-to-office movement for professionals. - The AI Revolution:
San Francisco is cementing itself as the global leader in artificial intelligence. Crunchbase reports that 50% of all global AI venture funding went to Bay Area startups. With AI projected to grow from a $214 billion market to $1.3 trillion by 2030. During the last tech boom, demand for condos surged along with single-family homes. From 2012 to 2016, condos sold quickly, and overbidding was common, aligning with the economic optimism of the time. If AI’s potential is realized, we could see a similar wave of prosperity, boosting condo demand once again.
Buyers Negotiate While You Still Can
While these trends are promising for all San Francisco property owners, the condo market offers unique advantages. The current softness in condo demand creates a window of opportunity for buyers and investors to negotiate favorable deals. Lower competition and reduced prices could allow savvy purchasers to secure prime properties before the market rebounds.
What’s Your Take?
Are these factors enough to merit optimism for San Francisco’s condo market? Let’s start a conversation!
